Saturday, March 04, 2006

Spring Training

This should be a pretty boring spring for the Tribe. If you project the likely 25-man roster from the current 40-man roster, it becomes apparent that the battles for spots will be few.

Sabbathia, Westbrook, Lee, Byrd and Johnson will be the starters. It's a solid group.

Wickman, Mota (if healthy), Betancourt, Cabrera, Sauerbeck (the only lefty), and Miller are pretty good bets to be in the bullpen. This, too, is a solid group but lacks another lefty.

The infielders should be Martinez, Broussard, Perez, Hafner, Belliard, Boone and Peralta. With the exception of Boone and Perez, who will platoon with Broussard, they're young and should be fine.

The outfielders will be Sizemore, Hollandsworth, Blake and Michaels. Other than Sizemore, they don't get you excited, but they should be solid.

That's 22 guys. To fill out the roster, the Tribe needs another bullpen arm, a back-up catcher, and a utility infielder.

So, the three battles for spots come down to:

1. Jason Davis vs all the other pitchers who have question marks. Failed first round pick, Jeremy Guthrie, is hanging around. So is Jason Stanford. Neither will likely get the last spot unless Guthrie has a great spring. He has great stuff but apparently forgot how to pitch during the last two years. A few young guys also have a shot. Kaz Tadano (gay porn star), Tony Sipp and Andrew Brown all are interesting and have really nice arsenals of pitches. The problem is that managers tend to be conservative in making roster moves. That way it's harder to second guess them. My guess is Davis gets the nod, but Brown gets the job and explodes later in the year.

2. Kelly Shoppach vs. Einar Diaz. They're not too dissimilar. Both are pretty good catch and throw guys who know how to handle a staff. My guess is that Shoppach gets the job. I know this flies in the face of what I just wrote above, but it's a little bit different. The Tribe has to show something for trading a very popular player in Coco Crisp because I don't think Andy Marte makes the team unless he pulls a Sizemore in spring training. Even then, I still don't think he breaks with the team. Plus, Shoppach has the potential to be a very nice hitter. I had run a projection in an earlier post based upon his minor league performance and put his numbers at .242/.320/.419 with 18 homers and around 18 doubles if he were to get 450 at bats. I'd start Shoppach. He'll control the running game better than Diaz would.

3. Ramon Vazquez vs. Brandon Phillips. What the hell happened to Brandon Phillips? He was supposed to be the key piece of the Colon deal (along with Lee and Sizemore). He had been compared to some of the better shortstops in the game based upon his potential. The fault dear Brutus lies not in his stars but in his inability to control the strike zone. Phillips still has the defensive skills that make managers drool, but the guy just refuses to be more selective at the plate. He doesn't see enough pitches, which means that he doesn't see enough good pitches. That also means he's often hitting down in the count when a pitcher is throwing his pitch. Another result of that is that Phillips at times gets defensive at the plate. That has eroded his power. In other words, the kid's screwed himself up big time. The good news is that he'll only be 24 to start the season. There's time, but the Tribe seems to be losing patience with him. I think Vazquez gets the job. He's a bum, but he's happy to sit on the end of the bench, yuk it up with the other guys, and spit sunflower seeds. You need a few guys like that.

The one guy I haven't mentioned yet is Ryan Garko. Everyone wants him to succeed, but I think he's ticketed for Buffalo to get at bats while Eduardo Perez serves as the right handed platoon for Broussard. Of course, all of this could change with a trade (unlikely) or one of the guys I mentioned playing himself into consideration.

2 comments:

Hornless Rhino said...

Vinny:

You forgot to mention that Jason Stanford is engaged to smoking hot Cavs Girl Kara Leonard. That's an intangible that none of the other pitching hopefuls can match.

Vinny said...

Geez. I screwed up. I forgot to include Steve Karsay and Danny Graves in the mix to get the last relief spot. If either has anything left, he probably becomes the front runner to get the job. However, that doesn't change my opinion that Andrew Brown is the real value.