Saturday, October 08, 2005

He's just that kind of fun guy.

To those who are new to the piercing ramblings of the Hornless Rhino, you're probably assuming the bitterness in his post was borne of the Indians' choke of what would have been a terrific season. It's not. I suspect that it's also not that his wife is withholding. Nor is he being indicted for any involvement with Tom DeLay. Why then? He's just that kind of fun guy.

The cup of cheer he provided in his original post is pretty typical of the stuff you get from him in any conversation about a team he likes. The overly sentimental Cleveland fan generally hates what he has to say in crunch time, but sadly, he's often right. Now, enough about the Rhino. I've got to mention the Tribe.

The Indians had a very good season. Contrary to the bandwagon jumpers, Wedge should not win Manager of the Year nor should he be solely blamed for the failure to make the playoffs. Let's face it, this team wasn't built to win this year.

Step back from the fanaticism and face reality. To win 93 games and go to the wire with the BoSox, the Indians had to get very very lucky. And when I mention luck, I mean they needed a lot to happen beyond their expectations.

They were one of the best pitching teams in all of baseball, but does their rotation really look like a powerhouse? To make their September run, they needed Elarton to pitch like Koufax. He did.
They needed Carsten Charles to pitch like they hoped he someday would but hadn't really shown. He did. They needed Millwood to dominate and stay healthy, even though he hadn't been that kind of pitcher in recent years. He did. They needed Cliff Lee to have a big year and pitch like a veteran. He did. Of the staff, only Jake Westbrook needed to perform as he had last year, and he did.

The bullpen was equally impressive despite Wickman's sore right wing and Rhodes' "personal issues."

In some respects, the offense proved even more surprising. Although the last seven games exposed the weakness of the bottom of the order, those guys were monsters after the All-Star break. Boone, Broussard, and Blake hit the hell out of the ball in key spots in the second half of the season but not in the last week. Instead, they reverted to the bargain bin mediocre hitters they truly are. Most teams can carry one of those guys. The Tribe has literally cornered the market. Typically, a team's power guys are the corner guys. In this case, the Tribe's corner guys are little more than spot fillers. They truly are a new version of the Killer B's because they're killlin' us.

The real luck on the offense, however, was that two of the youngest guys on the team essentially made the batting order work. Jhonny Peralta was supposed to hit 7th or 8th. He ended up giving good right handed average and solid power in the three spot. He was the second or third best hitting shortstop in the AL. Michael Young was the best and you can debate about Tejada. Without Peralta hitting third, lefthanded pitchers would have beaten the Tribe like a rented mule. Instead, he pummeled them. He hit a homer in every 14 at bats against a lefty. That statistic is almost Ruthian.

Grady Sizemore was even more impressive. The "throw-in" from the Colon deal with the Expos was the catalyst that made the team go. He, too, was slated to hit low in the order, but he ended up being the only hitter on the team who could produce leading off. He was also one of the few Tribe hitters who wasn't stationary on the bases.

How many teams go to the playoffs with their two youngest starters hitting first and third? Peralta's and Sizemore's performances were, in large part, what allowed this team to stay in the hunt all season long. That, my friends, is what I call luck.

The Indians really had a great season. Enjoy it. It will be hard to duplicate. The performance of the young hitters would seemingly bode well for the future, but it could be, as the Rhino likes to intimate, the prelude to even greater disappointment. This offseason will be the crucible for your hope. Millwood, Elarton, Howry and Wickman are free agents. We need them or guys just like them just to tread water. Shapiro has said all the right things about signing Millwood, but his agent, Scott the Devil Boras, will insist that Millwood go on the open market. When the monied teams start to play, will the Indians get short arms? Think about their track record in signing pitchers. It shouldn't inspire a great deal of hope. The others may be easier to sign, but even if the Tribe were to sign them all, would the team be better or would it merely be the same but older?

Additionally, all of the pitching in the world still wouldn't solve the inability of the bottom of the order to produce. That, unfortunately, will take more money. The minor league system isn't likely to produce a hitter better than the Killer B's for next year. The best hope for that type of hitter would be Ryan Garko, Franklin Guiterrez, or Brad Snyder. Garko, the erstwhile catcher and future firstbaseman/designated hitter, is the most complete hitter of the three but absent a HUGE spring won't break camp with the club. Guiterrez and Snyder are both outfielders who will likely need another year in AAA to work out issues. The Indians lack an impact bat on the horizon due, in large part, to their notorious inability to get value in the first round of the draft. I have my own theory about that. It's all about money. They seem to go after guys who are easier to sign despite that they may have limited upsides. The Tribe has traditionally shied away from versatile high upside picks and Boras clients in the first round. They tend to do their gambling in later rounds.

I don't blame Shapiro for this. I may be dead wrong, but I believe he's highly constrained by the amount of dough the owner will shell out for talent. I think Shapiro should be voted Executive of the Year in a landslide. Forget about Kenny Williams of the White Sox. Shapiro did what few General Managers in any sport have done. He tore apart a winning team; said he was rebuilding; set a timeline; and stuck to that timeline. Think about how often a franchise says it's rebuilding. Then, in three years without winning anything, it's rebuilding again. Oh. Sorry. I didn't mean to talk about the Browns, who've been "rebuilding" in one form or another since Lindy Infante left. Anyway, I tip my hat to Shapiro and hope Larry Dolan will open up his wallet during this Hot Stove season. Otherwise, in addition to a season where the Indians merely tread water, we may be in danger of losing a pretty talented GM. Because when the big market teams come calling, it will be hard for Shapiro to pass on the ability to spend money to get the players he needs.

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